Worst Yet to Come?

Iran has just stated that if Israeli strikes stop, Tehran will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy. The recent missile exchange resulted in the death of 400 people in Iran and 13 in Israel and has left several nuclear and military sites up in smoke. But will Israel take the offer, or keep its strikes going seeing that it apparently has the upper hand?

Iranian envoys have been telling mediators in Qatar and Oman that negotiations will begin only once incoming Israeli fire ceases entirely. Until then, Tehran intends to use its missile launches as defensive countermeasures, which is showing restraint without admitting defeat.

Israel’s leaders remain unconvinced. Defence planners argue that the first wave of strikes only damaged and didn’t destroy underground centrifuge halls at Natanz and Isfahan. In their view, halting now would hand Iran the time needed to rebuild.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense domestic pressure to ensure Iran’s nuclear capabilities are permanently neutralised. Polling published Sunday evening shows a clear majority of Israelis demanding that Iran’s nuclear capabilities be dismantled beyond easy repair. By retaining air space closures and keeping reserve pilots on standby through 19 June, the Israel Defense Forces are signalling readiness for further strikes.

Washington’s Avoidance

The United States continues to shield Israel with missile defence support but is drawing boundaries around any action that could spark a wider regional war. Last week, senior White House officials even blocked an Israeli proposal to target Iran’s supreme leader. The US is hoping that Israel’s attacks are limited enough to prevent more countries from being dragged in.

Further Attacks May be on the Way

Satellite imagery firms report heightened Israeli drone activity near Fordow and Parchin, which are two facilities that weren’t hit in the first barrage. This indicates that more strikes may be coming. Traders are bracing for more volatility. Brent futures are being held up by the fear of escalation and gold looks like it may close at a new all-time high:

With Israel seeming to have the upper hand and recently vowing retaliation for Iran’s retaliation, Iran’s attempts at negotiating may be ignored. If Israel’s drone activity over Iran’s facilities hints at anything, it is that this conflict may just be getting started.