Week of War and Economic News

This week's gold and silver prices will be at the mercy of a potential several-day attack on Israel, as well as a medley of high-impact economic announcements from around the world. War escalation may increase the appeal for gold and silver, while major economic releases will decide how much pressure and pushback central banks receive from investors. 

Several Day Retaliatory Attack?

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have just begun military exercises near their Western border that will continue for several days. An armed forces official said that they are preparing for combat readiness. Iran has promised a response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh late last month. Iran's retaliation could further escalate the conflict into an all-out regional war.

On Friday, Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Ali Fadavi said that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has issued clear orders for severe retaliation against Israel for Haniyeh's assassination and that it would be carried out in the "best possible way."

Further escalation came when a member of Iran's Parliament, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, warned that the expected Iranian attack on Israel could last several days. Talking to Iran Watch on Saturday night, Ardestani, who sits on the Parliament's National Security Commission, said "Iran's aerial operations against Israel could last three to four days" and ensured that Iran "is definitely ready for the consequences of such an attack and will be ready for any subsequent developments."

Meanwhile, on Saturday night, U.S. President Joe Biden was asked what his message would be to Iran, which has threatened to attack Israel in retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh. Biden's response was just one word: "Don't." He made the statement to reporters while exiting a church in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

Some people believe that these threats from Iran are just empty scare tactics because Iran is wary of risking a regional war and another unsuccessful large-scale attack like the one in April. Still, publicly, Iran has declared that it will retaliate against Israel.

Major Economic Releases this Week

This Wednesday will be an unusually packed calendar of data releases and decisions. Here are some of the biggest (all times are in AEST):

12:00   RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement & Interest Rate Decision
13:00   RBNZ Press Conference Speech
19:00   Eurozone Gross Domestic Product
22:30   USA Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Prepare for the possibility of a barrage of statements coming from Fed members after the U.S. CPI announcement. Any dovish leaning data has recently elicited pushback from the Fed.

Thursday will also be unusually busy:

09:50   Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (Yen)
11:30   AU Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (could apply pressure on RBA)
12:00   China’s Retail Sales
12:00   China’s Industrial Production (China’s data could move AUD)
22:30   USA Retail Sales