US Jobs – the whole story

You will know by now that the ‘positive’ US jobs numbers on Friday saw the Dow Jones soar and gold and silver prices hit down by the usual players.  So lets look beyond the headline 204,000 jobs added in October…. The 7.3% ‘unemployment figure’ (which excludes those who have ‘left’ the labour force) has barely moved and haven taken a year to get there from 8%, the 6.5% Fed target looks as far away as ever.  But more importantly (but curiously not broadly commented on) the labour force participation rate plunged to its lowest rate since 1978 and nearly 1 million left the labour force in October alone, the 3rd highest monthly increase in US History.  This takes the number of Americans not in the labour force (i.e. have given up trying to work) to an incredible 91.5m.  Most economists now don’t expect tapering until March 2014 but we think the dovish Yellen will not be happy with these real numbers and keep on printing well beyond this.