Triple-Figure Silver: A Christmas Possibility?

Silver has surged again, jumping roughly AU$10 in just a week, as part of a broader bull run that’s pushed spot prices to fresh all-time highs near US$58/oz. This is shaping up as a classic squeeze—shrinking inventories, surging demand, and favourable macro forces aligning.

Unlike gold, much of the world’s silver is mined as a by-product of base metals, not from dedicated silver mines. When base-metal operations slow or demand softens, silver supply doesn’t respond—even when prices spike. At the same time, demand continues to grow, driven by green technologies like solar panels and EV electronics, alongside traditional industrial use. Solar alone could push demand substantially higher by 2030.

Monetary conditions are adding fuel to the fire. With inflation proving sticky and expectations building for rate cuts, real interest rates are slipping into negative territory—a typically bullish environment for non-yielding assets like silver.

Meanwhile, supply-side indicators are flashing red. Inventories are being drawn down, refinery output remains tight, and recycling isn't bridging the gap. This potent mix of constrained supply, monetary tailwinds, and structural demand growth is a textbook setup for the kind of explosive price action we’re seeing now.

If current conditions hold, silver looks set to test, and possibly breach, the US$60–65/oz range in the near term, translating to AU$90–100/oz. Momentum remains strong, with capital continuing to favour precious metals over risk assets. A weaker Aussie dollar could make these gains even more pronounced locally.

Of course, risks remain. A sharp rebound in the US dollar, hawkish surprises from central banks, or an industrial slowdown could trigger volatility, and perhaps a short-term pullback to US$52–55/oz. But with supply largely inelastic and long-term demand rising, any correction is likely to be shallow, not a reversal of trend.

Silver may be an industrial metal, but it’s reasserting its role as money. For investors, that means thinking ahead. With supply tight and structural demand on the rise, this bull run could extend well into 2026.

This Christmas could mark the first time we see Australian spot silver prices in triple digits per ounce.