Tariff Talks Working?

Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met Chinese Vice‑Premier He Lifeng in Geneva for two days of negotiations. Officials on both sides described the exchange as “very constructive,” with Bessent saying that substantial progress had been made toward a framework deal.

Markets are now focused on the prospect (at this point it is all rumours) of the White House cutting its headline tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to something closer to 50%. Stock‑index futures strengthened on that possibility, while the dollar held strong.

Beijing appears to be making similar concessions. Corporate sources say importers in sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and aerospace have quietly received waivers that exempt roughly US$40 billion worth of US products from China’s 125% retaliatory levy, which would also protect domestic industries from collateral damage. The exemption list is rumoured to include microchips and aircraft components among other items.

Tariffs between the US and China have been notoriously difficult to navigate, even before the Trump administration. One example that China has argued in the past was how many toys they need to sell to match the price of one Boeing 737. This illustrates the vast differences in what each country produces and sells to the other. If the Trump administration is simply using tariffs to reset the global trade balance, then hopefully recent progress continues to hold.

Gold's upside may seem restricted from this news. Still, gold’s resilience shows that traders remain wary. Any breakdown in talks could quickly reignite safe‑haven flows. Both governments must now navigate domestic politics. US lawmakers are pushing for tougher intellectual‑property guarantees, while Beijing weighs economic relief and appears strong.

Until those details are hashed out, gold is likely to trade headline‑to‑headline. This also includes other geopolitical risks, like the recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and whether it will hold or not. Cautious investors may simply see this as an opportunity to buy the dip - something that has rarely happened with gold's price in the last year.