Taiwan Sees Large Chinese Military Presence

As the Strait of Hormuz appears close to blocked, China seems to be moving its own chess pieces. According to Politico, Taiwan’s defence ministry detected 26 military aircraft nearby, along with seven Chinese naval vessels. The build-up came on Saturday after an unusual drop in activity that had analysts puzzled. One theory is that it was linked to a meeting of China’s legislature, while another is that Beijing may be adjusting its military strategy.

The timing is far from ideal for Trump. The latest reporting suggests the US, potentially with allies, is considering a plan to escort commercial vessels through the strait, although nothing formal has been announced. That could prove problematic. One unresolved question is whether escorts would be deployed during the current tensions or only after they ease. If tensions have already eased, the mission risks looking more like posturing than necessity. Balancing a war in the region while keeping shipping lanes operating smoothly was always going to be difficult.

By contrast, India appears to have had some success through direct talks with Iran. Reports indicate that some Indian vessels have been allowed through the strait without concessions from either side. Almost every country has an incentive to keep the strait open and oil prices contained, but Iran has limited options if it wants to impose costs on the US and Israel.

Tehran says it is prepared for a long war as Israel intensifies its strikes. With the Russia–Ukraine war still grinding on, and tensions also elevated by Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, the renewed activity near Taiwan is another reminder of how easily isolated conflicts can widen. Some form of de-escalation is needed soon if these flashpoints are not to merge into something far more dangerous.