Türkiye Unloads 118 Tonnes of Gold as Iran War Bites

Key Points

• Türkiye’s central bank drew down 118 tonnes of gold in two weeks, the largest weekly decline since 2013.
• About 60 percent was gold swaps, 40 percent outright sales. Total value close to US$8 billion.
• Official framing is “controlled liquidity.” The scale points to forced-seller pressure from the Iran war.
• Gold’s safe-haven role has been muted during the energy shock. Oil and dollar strength have capped gains.
• Goldman Sachs is holding its US$5,400 end-of-2026 gold target.
• Sovereign gold flows flipping from buying to drawdown is a structural signal, not a daily one.
  
   

Turkish central bank gold reserves fell to around 702 tonnes by the end of March, with roughly 118 tonnes drawn down over a two-week period as the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) scrambles to manage the fallout from the Iran conflict. It is the largest weekly decline in reserves since the CBRT began publishing the data in 2013, with 69.1 tonnes moving in the week ending 28 March alone.

Around 60 percent of the two-week drawdown was structured as gold swaps rather than outright sales, with the balance sold to generate lira and foreign currency liquidity. Bloomberg has estimated the two-week drawdown at close to US$8 billion, taking the total gold committed since the Iran conflict began to somewhere near US$20 billion.

The central bank is framing this as a controlled liquidity operation, not a panic sale. On paper, the swap structure preserves balance sheet integrity: gold remains on the books during the swap period and can be reclaimed at maturity, allowing crisis response without permanent asset depletion. In theory, the arrangement signals confidence in the eventual stabilisation of the lira and gold’s recovery capability over the coming quarters.

The reality looks closer to forced-seller behaviour. A 69-tonne single-week drawdown from one of the world’s most aggressive gold accumulators of the past decade is not a routine liquidity exercise. The Turkish lira has slid against the dollar and euro over the past year, and energy import costs have climbed sharply since the Iran conflict began, with Brent crude briefly touching around US$120 per barrel and Turkish authorities raising household electricity and gas prices by up to 25 percent. Officials have noted that every one-dollar increase in oil adds roughly US$400 million to Turkey’s annual energy bill.

Despite Türkiye’s sizeable drawdown, gold has continued to grind higher, logging consecutive weekly gains on persistent Middle East tensions. But gold’s overall performance during this energy shock has been unusually muted for a safe-haven metal. Oil and gas disruptions have overshadowed bullion demand, and heightened energy import requirements have supported dollar purchasing, keeping a lid on the metal. Goldman Sachs is among the more constructive voices, reaffirming its end-of-year 2026 gold target at US$5,400 after the March selloff. That call would see bullion well above current levels if the geopolitical backdrop persists.

For physical gold investors, the Türkiye story is a useful reminder that central bank flows are quarterly signals, not daily ones. Sovereign behaviour flipping from aggressive accumulation to forced drawdown is the kind of move that reshapes the supply and demand picture over months, not days. Ainslie Bullion offers physical gold in every format from cast bars to minted coins, and tokenised gold through Gold Silver Standard for those who want on-chain exposure backed by real metal.

Explore the physical bullion at Ainslie Bullion  -  https://ainsliebullion.com.au/Buy . 
 

This is general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.