Silver: Short-Term Pullback Into a Long-Term Opportunity

Key Takeaways

• Silver's 8-year price cycle points toward a major low forming sometime in 2026.
• Cycle timing signals a probable window for lows, not which direction prices move next.
• Near term, silver looks due for a brief pullback before any longer-term move higher.

Silver, like most commodities, is cyclical in nature. In Hurst-style cycle analysis, tracking cycles (measured low to low) is used to estimate timing windows for major lows, with practitioners of the method citing historical accuracy rates as high as 80%.

With an 8-year macro cycle starting in October 2022, 2026 provides a window for a major “half-cycle low”, a timing window we have recently entered.

While cycles predict time, not price, forming an expectation for a price increase in the second half of the macro 8-year cycle must be based on technicals, macro-economics and fundamentals. Cycles do not guarantee that the second half of the 8-year cycle consists of a series of bullish weekly cycles: they could just as easily contain a series of failed, left-translated weekly cycles in a macro downtrend.

However, for those with a bullish macro outlook on silver, this cycle timing provides a timing-based opportunity to position for the upcoming years.

With the recent daily cycle on silver being very bullish, we see silver currently coming to the window for a daily cycle low pullback, after rallying into a major trendline, with the DSS Bressert momentum indicator starting to roll over. This builds an expectation for a short-term pullback in price, while long-term silver bulls prepare capital to take advantage of this pullback for longer-term positioning.

While expectations around bond yields, interest rates, inflation and unemployment could all influence the second half of silver's macro 8-year cycle, a multi-decade view on dollar devaluation, global financial instability and financial sovereignty leads many long-term precious metal investors to look past short to medium-term signals and dollar-cost average in over decades, consistently shifting a portion of their savings from currencies with a history of debasement into a physical, finite asset.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.