Silver Breaks Free as the Squeeze Takes Hold

Silver has punched through key resistance, and the market is tightening fast. Spot silver has now breached US$50/oz and surged past it—currently trading at an extraordinary $82 AUD per ounce.

This isn’t just a break of the 2011 highs; silver has now eclipsed the all-time peak set in the 1980s, when the Hunt brothers famously tried to corner the market. Their massive accumulation of physical silver and futures contracts drove prices to US$50/oz before collapsing in a wave of regulatory intervention and forced liquidations.

So, why the squeeze?

The physical silver market is under severe strain. Inventories in London vaults are draining rapidly, and lease rates have spiked into double digits—clear signs that lenders are struggling to find metal. In short: there’s plenty of silver on paper, but far less available for actual delivery.

India offers a stark illustration. With Diwali approaching, local silver scarcity has driven domestic premiums 8–10% above international benchmarks. Some ETFs have even suspended new subscriptions, unable to source physical metal at current prices. This is real: demand for physical silver is outpacing supply.

Layer on top the rising structural demand from military, solar, electronics, and EV sectors—all continuing to consume silver at unsustainable rates—and the supply crunch deepens. Production can’t be scaled overnight, and global stockpiles have been eroding for years.

Technically, silver’s chart is reinforcing the narrative. A classic cup-and-handle pattern stretching back 45 years has now resolved higher, with clean breakouts and accelerating momentum. This rally is not just noise—it has structure and strength.

Where to from here?

With the squeeze underway, silver could plausibly push toward US$65/oz over the next 12 months—triple digits in AUD terms. In a blow-off phase, if the paper markets fracture under pressure, three-figure silver isn’t out of the question. Analysts like Mike Maloney have long pointed to this potential.

Silver is leading this bull market. The squeeze is real—and it may have only just begun.