Recessionary Warning for US
The US Fed has a conundrum. It is seeing signs of recovery in the US, albeit weak, and everyone is expecting them to raise rates to prove everything is awesome and stop this asset bubble forming stimulus experiment. But the fact is the US is part of the world and the world is simply not doing well. As discussed in today’s Weekly Wrap, the latest warning sign is World Trade Volume has just taken its steepest and longest decline over the last 6 months since the GFC. The graph below tells the story. When you are the world’s biggest economy and biggest consumer, this spells recessionary forces that don’t gel with a rate rise.