Platinum’s Break Out Moves

Platinum has long been the sleeping giant of the precious metals - overlooked, under-owned, and undervalued. That may be changing: spot platinum is now trading in the ballpark of AUD$2405 oz after a surge of more than 50% year to date. Macro and technical signals are aligning for platinum to experience its next shift upwards.

ASX Trader Analysis

David Bird (ASX Trader) from Mastering The Markets recently highlighted in analysis of the precious metal cycles that platinum’s recent price action has broken it out of a 20-year downtrend. Writing for the Courier Mail about platinum back in May, he noted platinum was quietly preparing for a major move and could be to 2025 what gold was to 2024. David emphasises that this is more than a speculative blip: smart money is moving into platinum as it shifts from sidelined to sought-after. The combination of technical analysis, favourable industrial demand, and investor rotation means platinum is set for another for a major move up in price.

Macro Cycle: Why Now for Platinum?

Platinum charted over the last 55 years shows distinct up trends followed by 20 year down trends. Having just culminated the last 20 year bear market for platinum, it is currently broken its downward trend into the next cycle upwards. Historically, platinum has been more expensive than gold, and David reminds us that we have a lot of room for price growth having just entered accumulation phase, his analysis revealing platinum could reach US$5000 this cycle.

Platinum benefits from a convergence of monetary, industrial and structural supply-side dynamics. On the monetary side, bullion metals are benefiting from inflation fears, negative real interest rates, and broader distrust of fiat currency. On the industrial side, platinum is critical in autocatalytic converters, and increasingly in the hydrogen economy. Supply-side constraints are acute: South Africa, which supplies the lion’s share of mined platinum, has reported significant disruptions and declining output, and recycling flows remain weak. That creates a structural backdrop: demand rising, supply constrained, investor flows unmet.

The Next 6–12 Months: What To Expect

In the coming half-year to year ahead, platinum’s trajectory should be upward - though not without risks. Based on the current setup and ASX Trader’s charting cues, a move toward US $1,800-2,000/oz is a reasonable target if all conditions align (continuing industrial demand, minimal supply disruption, and currency/monetary tailwinds). If metals markets tighten further, US $2,200+ is in play. A significant slowdown in the auto sector or a sharp rise in real interest rates could drag platinum back toward US $1,300-1,400. The bifurcation of possible outcomes makes platinum an asymmetric opportunity.

How Bullion Investors Should Position

For bullion investors, this is a moment to consider adding platinum as a meaningful diversifier alongside gold and silver. Allocate for example 5-10% of precious-metals portfolio to platinum, then consider adding on dips. Focus on holding physical bars and coins. Watch for interest rate moves, disruptions in South African supply, investor ETF flows into platinum, and global auto output trends. In a world where gold and silver dominate the media and have already advanced substantially, platinum quietly offers significant leverage potential for the next leg of the metals cycle.