New US Fed Chair’s First-Rate Decision Today: All Eyes on the Press Conference

Key Takeaways

• Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting today, 17 June 2026, with markets pricing a near-certain hold at 3.50% to 3.75%.
• CME FedWatch put the probability of no change at roughly 97% heading into the decision, so the rate itself is not the story.
• Attention is on the press conference and the dot plot for signals of regime change, tone, or hints toward lower rates longer term.
• Anything more dovish than the expected neutral-to-hawkish stance could be read as bullish for gold and silver.

With Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting today, most market participants are expecting rates to remain the same. However attention is primarily around the press conference, watching for tone, signals of regime change, or hints towards lower rates long term.

As markets currently expect a hold with a potentially more neutral or hawkish tilt due to sticky inflation, anything more dovish than this via either policy or speech would be interpreted as bullish.

With recent jobs data looking resilient (albeit untrustworthy amid regular downward revisions of late) and inflation inching up (although still in an overall downtrend), the surface data certainly leans towards hawkish expectations, with many suggesting that upon digging a bit under the surface it is evident that the Fed has been overly restrictive so far and we’re overdue for a dovish stance by the new chair.

In addition to mixed signals around inflation and employment we have a geopolitically unstable landscape raising further complexities around inflationary pressures of rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions.

With the current set up, market participants should brace for short term volatility in both directions for the next 24 hours, before a genuine trend direction is established. For those watching how a dovish surprise might flow through to bullion, Ainslie Bullion’s gold and silver range is one place to start.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.