Macro and Global Liquidity Analysis: Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin – November 2025

Today the Ainslie Research team brings you the latest monthly update on where we are in the Global Macro Cycle, driven by the Global Liquidity Cycle, and the implications for Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. This summary highlights the key charts discussed with our expert panel on Tuesday. We encourage you to watch the recorded video of the presentation in full for the detailed explanations.

 

Where are we currently in the cycles?

Recent data positions the market in an early cycle phase characterised by ongoing liquidity expansion, though the rate of change has decelerated, creating tensions between nominal growth and forward-looking asset adjustments that could foreshadow increased volatility without signalling an immediate downturn. Global equities reflect this choppiness, with pullbacks in high-sensitivity assets amid constructive PMI readings and rising earnings, while precious metals maintain resilience through subdued retracements. This environment underscores a maturing cycle where fiscal dynamics dominate over central bank interventions, potentially prolonging the phase into 2026 but requiring close monitoring of liquidity inflection points to manage risks and identify opportunities for strategic allocation across macro assets.

 

Deep dive on the Global Liquidity Cycle

Global liquidity continues its nominal ascent, supported by factors such as elevated collateral values and short-term bill issuance, yet the slowing rate of change, evident in metrics like advanced economies excluding China, indicates a potential peak, with markets anticipating reduced momentum through front-running behaviours. Central banks present a mixed picture, with major players like the US Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England contracting at annualised rates in the negative, partially offset by China's robust expansion, highlighting a shift toward fiscal transmission that may extend the cycle but risks constraints from bond volatility or treasury account build-ups. This configuration suggests short-term positivity from anticipated drawdowns and bill-focused issuance, but emphasises the critical role of bank reserves as the foundational layer, where stagnation could pressure assets unless external events prompt renewed interventions.

Deep dive on the Global Macro Cycle

The macro cycle exhibits tepid yet constructive growth, with global PMIs and US indicators pointing to expansion, countering recession fears amid a backdrop of fiscal dominance that prioritises real economy stimulus over asset-focused quantitative easing. Inflation overhangs influence policy restraint, as central banks unwind balance sheets post an extraordinary prior cycle marked by supply-side disruptions and unprecedented stimulus, while employment stability and deregulation prospects support a steeper yield curve conducive to private credit flows. This setup implies cycle prolongation without the aggressive peaks of past expansions, potentially navigating through uncertainties like tariffs or AI impacts, but necessitates vigilance on forward guidance to anticipate shifts that could sustain nominal liquidity while mitigating wealth inequality pressures.

 

Deep dive on the Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin's trajectory remains closely tied to liquidity dynamics, with the recent 35% pullback aligning with historical mid-cycle corrections rather than signalling the end, as cycle analysis reveals choppy patterns potentially setting up for a right-translated rally amid oversold conditions and extreme sentiment lows. Sensitivity to rate-of-change slowdowns, particularly in bank reserves, has amplified volatility, yet divergences from nominal liquidity highs are expected to resolve upward on a bounce, supported by improved fundamentals over the past year and precedent for post-topping blow-offs. This phase favours disciplined navigation, overlooking transient bearish signals in favour of macro continuity, while preparing for leverage risks and external factors like dollar strength that could influence short-term rebounds before any liquidity-driven peak.

Gold and Silver

We can take advantage of the Macro Cycles by strategically allocating between the Macro Assets (Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver) during the optimal cycle stages.

Strategic allocation leverages cycle stages, with gold and silver benefiting from the debasement narrative through sustained demand and structural supply constraints, as recent vertical surges give way to shallow pullbacks that preserve upward biases amid fiscal expansions. Silver's outperformance, driven by industrial applications in AI and energy build-outs, has compressed the gold-to-silver ratio while highlighting extreme backwardation and premium spikes due to thin supply, positioning it as a high-beta complement to gold's stability. Over extended horizons, this dynamic aligns with liquidity trends, favouring continued resilience in precious metals as sovereign and institutional accumulations underscore their role in hedging against monetary Ponzi-like structures, with potential for further gains before macro inflections reverse the trend.

A Simple Trading Plan to take advantage of the cycles

Watch the video presentation to see full details of the specific Trading Plan we provide, that you can follow, which has returned 144.0% p.a. as at Tuesday’s recording.

 

Watch the full presentation with detailed explanations and discussion on our YouTube Channel here: 

 

This was our final video and report for 2025. We will return in January 2026 to assess what has changed and keep you updated with everything you need to know. Until then, wishing everyone a safe and Merry Christmas, and a prosperous start to the new year full of good luck in the markets!

 

Chris Tipper

Chief Economist and Strategist

The Ainslie Group

 

x.com/TipperAnalytics

 

Note: The monthly video presentation is recorded live with our expert panel. Our objective is to make the updates as useful and specific to what you want to understand as possible, so as always feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback that we can incorporate into

next month’s video to make it something that provides you with the highest possible value for your time!