Macro and Global Liquidity Analysis: Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin – August 2025

Today the Ainslie Research team brings you the latest monthly update on where we are in the Global Macro Cycle, driven by the Global Liquidity Cycle, and the implications for Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. This summary highlights the key charts discussed with our expert panel on Tuesday. We encourage you to watch the recorded video of the presentation in full here for the detailed explanations.

Where are we currently in the cycles?

Recent analysis indicates the market remains positioned in an early cycle phase, characterised by choppy liquidity trends that have delayed a clear transition to mid-cycle expansion. Global equity cycles show upward momentum, yet the macro environment lingers in subdued growth and inflation, influenced by recency bias from prior spectacular cycles. Bitcoin's cycle has flagged potential bearish signals, adding complexity, while precious metals continue to demonstrate resilience. This setup suggests the overall cycle could extend sideways without the dramatic peaks seen historically, emphasising the need for deeper metric evaluation to navigate potential air pockets and identify emerging opportunities amid ongoing liquidity support.

Deep dive on the Global Liquidity Cycle

Global liquidity has exhibited persistent choppiness, with frequent data revisions preventing sustained breakthroughs above key thresholds, yet nominal levels remain elevated compared to a year ago. Contributions from developed economies dominate, while emerging markets, including China, have yet to fully synchronise, potentially setting the stage for further upside if dollar weakness and rate cuts materialise. Rate of change indicators are curling over, aligning with anticipated softening in August and September, but historical comparisons to cycles like 2016-2017 point to room for a final boom phase. This environment, marked by stable collateral values and reduced bond volatility, supports asset appreciation in the short term, though vigilance is warranted as any explosive increase could signal the cycle's peak.

Deep dive on the Global Macro Cycle

The macro cycle reflects a lacklustre progression, with growth indicators hovering near neutral levels across services and manufacturing, driven by fiscal measures amid shifting central bank priorities from inflation control to addressing rising unemployment. Inflation trends remain downward overall, with potential short-term deflationary pressures if economic weakness persists, allowing for rate cuts that could extend the cycle without immediate resurgence. Recent bond market reactions to forward guidance reinforce low inflation expectations, while revisions to employment data may accelerate policy easing. This configuration anticipates a prolonged early-to-mid phase, potentially deferring significant inflationary rebounds to the next cycle around 2026, where heightened quantitative easing could drive more traditional dynamics.

Deep dive on the Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin's alignment with liquidity cycles persists, though recent momentum weakness has triggered cautionary signals, prompting evaluation against broader macro trends that suggest dips represent buying opportunities rather than cycle endings. Positioning data indicates building short interest, which could fuel short-term rebounds, yet the asset's sensitivity to rate of change in liquidity underscores the importance of monitoring for erratic behaviour near peaks. Cycle timing tools project potential lows forming presently, with upside resumption possibly delayed until October, favouring accumulation during consolidations. As the cycle matures, emphasis shifts to sentiment and overleveraging risks, reinforcing a strategy of averaging in for long-term exposure while preparing for increased volatility in the final phase.

Gold and Silver

We can take advantage of the Macro Cycles by strategically allocating between the Macro Assets (Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver) during the optimal cycle stages.

Gold and silver have maintained strong performance relative to liquidity trends, with gold stabilising at elevated levels and silver showing greater percentage gains, supported by industrial demand and miner outperformance signalling continued upside. The gold-to-silver ratio is trending downward, favouring silver in the near term as it compresses further into any macro peak, where a temporary spike may occur amid flight-to-safety flows. Longer-term cycles, spanning 80 years, position silver for multi-decade outperformance below historical averages, advising against frequent switches between the metals. This interplay benefits from liquidity expansions, with silver's higher responsiveness positioning it for amplified moves as the cycle advances toward potential resolution in 2026.

A Simple Trading Plan to take advantage of the cycles

Watch the video presentation to see full details of the specific Trading Plan we provide, that you can follow, which has returned 213.7% p.a. as at Tuesday’s recording.

Watch the full presentation with detailed explanations and discussion on our YouTube Channel here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOAkrSsFv6o

We will return in September to assess what has changed and keep you updated with everything you need to know. Until then, good luck in the markets!

Chris Tipper
Chief Economist and Strategist
The Ainslie Group

x.com/TipperAnalytics

Note: The monthly video presentation is recorded live with our expert panel. Our objective is to make the updates as useful and specific to what you want to understand as possible, so as always feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback that we can incorporate into next month’s video to make it something that provides you with the highest possible value for your time!