Land Markets on a Knife’s Edge - As Macro Cycle Peak Approaches

As we track the final phase of the 18.6-year land cycle to gauge where stocks, gold, silver, and property markets stand, all eyes are on land. After an underwhelming recovery from the Trump tariff spill in April, land markets may be signalling a growing macro divergence from equities.

Such a divergence would be an early warning sign that the land markets have peaked and the macro peak for stocks aren’t far.

Below we can see in the previous cycle (which peaked with the 2007 Global Financial Crisis) land (blue) falling off 15 months before the SP500 (pink) peaked. Gold and silver continued up for longer than stocks and recovered to new highs within months of the crash — to continue onto multiyear bull runs — while both land and stocks spent those years struggling to recover.

With a direct impact on precious metals, especially the Gold to Silver Ratio (green) tracking this cycle has been a focus for silver investors in particular. We see above that the GSR peaked during this crash and dropped down to 35 after,  as silver outperformed gold for a couple of years after the land crash.

With the SP500 currently in a blow off rally, it is important to keep an eye on land markets to remain grounded in where we sit with the overall macro cycle.

Below we can see this divergence between land and stocks in the previous cycle more clearly with land putting in macro lower highs and lower lows, while the SP500 had a strong rally leading into the peak.

It is important to note that while these cycle influence major western land and stock markets, there are always outliers. For example, property in mining towns will often come out on top during a commodities boom while property in major financial districts struggle during the crashes of these land debt cycles.

So where are we today?

Since the April tariff spill, the SP500 has put in an impressive rally, while land markets have failed to recover their highs, a divergence is potentially building.

Zooming in, land markets are currently sitting near the 50% retracement level of the recent recovery trend.

Weekly closes below 105 would serve as an early indication of weakness, increasing the likelihood of a broader divergence between land and equity markets. More critically, if land markets fall below the swing low pivot at 91 on a weekly close, it would confirm a macro downtrend marked by lower highs and lower lows — supporting the case that a broader market peak is approaching.