Israel Ready to Hit Iran

Whether planned or not, Washington and Jerusalem appear to be running the “good cop, bad cop” playbook against Tehran. The Wall Street Journal reported that US and Israeli officials say Israel is ready to hit Iran’s nuclear infrastructure within days. The most recent update says as early as Sunday, if Tehran refuses to stop uranium enrichment.

The ticking clock

According to the report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned President Donald Trump in a Monday phone call that military action was on the table unless Iran immediately freezes production of weapons-grade fissile material. Netanyahu said that Israel will not wait for inspectors or more negotiating rounds if it believes Iran is edging toward a bomb.

Tehran has yet to issue a formal response, but senior officials have repeatedly vowed “severe” retaliation for any attack. That language has prompted US forces in the Gulf to raise their alert status in recent days.

Trump told reporters earlier this week that the next round of US–Iran nuclear talks is planned for Thursday, June 19. The president insisted the United States will accept “zero” domestic enrichment inside Iran. Tehran says it will present a counterproposal shortly but still wants to maintain limited enrichment under tight verification.

Pressure or coordination?

It could just be a coincidence, but could Netanyahu be deliberately ratcheting up the threat of force to hand Trump extra leverage for negotiations? If Iranian negotiators believe a strike is imminent, they might settle for less to avoid a devastating war or complete destruction of their facilities.

We have seen this before. In 2012 the Obama administration quietly leveraged Israeli strike plans to strengthen international sanctions that ultimately forced Iran into the 2015 JCPOA. Netanyahu may be trying a rerun, only this time with Trump as the deal closer.

Netanyahu’s domestic standing has been damaged by the Gaza conflict, while Trump faces intense pressure from hawks inside his own party not to settle for anything resembling the old JCPOA. If you look at it this way, Israel’s threat is real and is an insurance policy in case Trump’s diplomacy doesn't get any results.

Markets on edge

Energy traders immediately started trading this news. Brent crude briefly went above US $103 before settling back, while gold hovered near its record A$5,820 per ounce during Asian hours. Defence equities also caught a bid, mirroring patterns seen ahead of the 2020 Soleimani strike.

For further updates, keep an eye on the news on the dates mentioned above. You can also search for news of military movements in the region. Any further collapse in negotiations could significantly increase the chances of military conflict and lead to a further rush to gold.