House Votes Yes on Draft Bill. Trump Threatens China

The House passed a defence bill Friday that would automatically register men aged 18 to 25 for Selective Service. Trump, on the topic of war, could potentially start a trade war with China with a crushing 60% tariff on all imports if elected.

It looks like the U.S. may soon be following Germany's lead in preparing for a World War 3. The new bill authorises US$895 billion in military spending by the House. The Senate is unlikely to pick it up because of the many amendments on such issues as abortion and diversity efforts that the Democrat-controlled chamber would not consider. But the Selective Service provision is part of an enduring bipartisan effort to keep in place the framework for military conscription, even though the draft ended in 1975.

Automatic registration would replace this coming-of-age ritual that all 18-year-old male U.S. citizens undergo when they receive a card from Uncle Sam saying that they are required, under threat of criminal penalties, to register for the Selective Service. Supporters of the legislation framed it as a more efficient and cost-effective method.

One of the other effects of the bill would be removing the right of young men to choose to break the law as an act of civil disobedience. As Reason's Matt Welch wrote, the Selective Service isn't some glorious part of the American civic fabric—it's instead a tool of the Pentagon that seems to exist only in fits and starts:

The Selective Service System was established in 1917 to feed bodies into America's World War I efforts. It was disbanded in 1920, fired back in 1940, re-formatted in 1948, and then terminated in 1975 as part of Washington's decisive shift to an all-volunteer military. Then, a panicky President Jimmy Carter in 1980, alarmed by the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan, reinstituted draft registration as a just-in-case rite of passage for boys to complete within 30 days of their 18th birthday, under theoretical penalty of five years imprisonment and (eventually) up to US$250,000 in fines.

While there have only been 14 convictions for Selective Service refuseniks, and none since 1986, those 100,000 or so young men per year who disobey Washington's marching orders are typically barred from working government jobs, receiving student loans, and obtaining a driver's license in most states.

Trump’s Proposed Tariffs

Trump’s proposed tariffs could add rocket fuel to the geopolitical uncertainties and risks if he is re-elected. He is now looking at a whopping 60% tariff on all imports from China to the U.S. Economist Ning Zhang has stated that China is bracing itself for a trade war if Trump is to become president once again. With the Chinese stock market and property market experiencing serious weakness recently, the Trump tariffs could be devastating. The tariffs could potentially unravel the work done by the Chinese government to stimulate the economy and lead to a situation in China of higher inflation and lower income.

With USA mirroring Germany’s conscription plans and Trump threatening trade war with China, this could potentially promote a "risk off" mood in markets, which is when investors flee investments they see as unstable and move to safe havens/hedges. As covered last week, World War 2 was long-running until it was publicly acknowledged that a world war was happening. Could it be that a World War 3 is coming, or that it is already happening?