Gold Stages a Powerful Comeback as Rate-Hike Bets Fade

Key Takeaways

• Gold bounced hard off a major support level near A$4,000 instead of breaking down through it.
• The rebound tracked fading expectations of a US rate hike in September.
• Central bank buying and Chinese demand continue to underpin the price.

Rather than falling through a major historical price level around A$4,000, gold held firm several weeks ago and then fired back upward. The rebound off that support is visible on the chart below, where a large green candle marks a 7.5% rise in a single week, the strongest weekly performance since January 2026. The move came in the week ending 8 August 2026, after a surprise contraction in US July jobs data cooled expectations of a rate hike.

One of the main reasons behind the move may be that expectations of a US rate hike have begun to fade. Kevin Warsh, who became Federal Reserve Chair on 22 May 2026, has signalled a preference for fewer Fed announcements and a more behind-the-scenes approach, telling reporters on 29 July 2026 that his remarks would focus on long-term structural questions rather than near-term guidance. That may be a hard culture to break. Reporters and analysts are now trained to hang on every word, and the effect is apparent when looking at moves in the gold price.

Markets now appear to be pricing in no rate hike in September, and, unlike last week, are no longer expecting one at the end of the year.

Gold has also had the added benefit of increased demand in China and, as usual, central bank buying. China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak in July 2026, adding roughly 20 tonnes (Bloomberg, 7 August 2026), while central banks globally acquired an estimated 289 tonnes in the second quarter (World Gold Council).

Investors may not get the near-constant Fed updates they once did, but they will get the July meeting minutes, due for release on 19 August 2026. Warsh will also be the main event at the Jackson Hole symposium, which runs from 27 to 29 August 2026, and his address is expected to have a large impact on markets.

What it means for investors

Gold’s ability to hold major support and rebound on shifting rate expectations is the kind of pattern that has historically rewarded patient accumulation rather than timing the top or bottom. Steady central bank and Chinese demand continue to provide a floor under the price. For investors building a position over time, Ainslie Bullion’s gold range and the Ainslie Saver offer a way to accumulate through the cycle.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.