Gold Forecasts for the End of the Year

The forecasts from investment banks have been slowly rolling in for gold after the metal's stellar rise over the last six months. The projections we’ll discuss below range from Citigroup’s estimate of US$3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, to the more recent bullish estimates from UBS, JPMorgan, and CBA, at US$3,600, US$3,675, and US$3,750 respectively. The reason the forecasts appear so different is based on what each bank sees happening in the world economy: Citi sees moderation, while the others see more turmoil – so who will be right and who will be wrong? Trade wars, the Middle East and Ukraine, tax cuts and deficits continue to defy forecasters – from the “that couldn’t possibly happen” to the “OMG, it’s happening”. Time will tell who gets this forecast right.

Citigroup

Let’s start with their forecast and compare it to their track record from last year.

Citigroup is very bullish on the world economy heading into the fourth quarter of 2025, lowering its short- and long-term price targets for gold, stating that quarter three will likely see prices between US$3,100–3,500, before breaking below US$3,000 per ounce in quarter four. Their forecast includes a 60% probability for this base case, due to declining investment demand amid improving global growth and US tax cuts stimulating the economy.

The note stated:

“We expect gold prices to continue consolidating around US$3,100–3,500/oz over the coming quarter, as the world digests US tariff policy changes, geopolitical risks remain high, and US budget and growth concerns remain elevated.”

It went on to say that the highs are likely in – despite continued escalations at the time in the Middle East:

“Our work suggests that we may have already seen the highs... as the gold market deficit is peaking soon, if not already.”

In its base-case scenario (60% probability), Citi expects gold to break below US$3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, as investor demand wanes and economic sentiment improves.

In April 2024, Citigroup made a bold forecast for gold to reach US$3,000 per ounce by 2025 – a bold but underdone prediction at the time, forecasting a ‘steeper risk-off environment’.

JP Morgan Forecast

On 10 June, one week before Citi’s forecast, JPMorgan amended its 2025 forecast, increasing its fourth-quarter target from US$2,950 to US$3,675, rising to US$4,000 per ounce in 2026.

Change in 2025 JP Morgan Forecast

From similar levels to Citigroup just one week prior, JPMorgan significantly lifted its 2025 forecast. Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, stated:

“Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fuelling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if US$4,000/oz is in the cards.”

“To answer the question — yes, we think it is, particularly now with recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly.”

In 2024, JPMorgan forecasted gold to be around US$2,500 by the end of that year.

CBA May Forecast

Before Israel–Iran tensions were making headlines, CBA released what seemed like an extremely bullish gold forecast in May, claiming gold could rise to US$3,750 per ounce by the end of 2025. What now appears to be in line with the majority of forecasts was again driven by expectations of a weakening global economy. In the note, Vivek Dhar, Director of Mining and Energy Commodities Research at CBA, stated in regard to Israel–Iran:

“The threat of military strikes against Iran cannot be ruled out, which raises the stakes if US–Iran talks remain deadlocked.”

In 2024, CBA forecast gold to hit US$2,800 per ounce.

UBS Forecast

UBS has probably been the most bullish on gold over the past 12 months. In a recent note on gold miners, UBS reiterated its long-term forecast for gold at US$3,600 per ounce. Once 30% above other forecasts, it's now within 10% as other banks have lifted their guidance following gold’s record run.

Who is right and who is wrong appears harder than ever to predict – rose-coloured glasses and optimism, or doom and gloom – it depends on which bank you ask. But for the moment, gold appears to be continuing its record run, and this time it’s following the white metals: silver and platinum. As we’ve said before at Ainslie, it’s not really a bull market until these metals lead – so perhaps the end of 2025 is only the start of the bull run