G20 Spurs Crypto – “Bitcoin $91,000 by 2020”

The lead up to the G20 in Buenos Aires has been a nervous one for holders of crypto currencies.  The ‘elephant in the room’ amidst the FUD of relatively minor exchange hacks and advertising on Google has been whether or not the G20’s Financial Stability Board (FSB) would come down hard with regulation or even attempted banning of crypto currencies (not that that is possible for a peer to peer network).  The concerns emanated from some G20 members calling for a global crack down on the new digital asset.  The Bank of England governor Mark Carney chairs the FSB and said that whilst more international coordination was needed to plug data gaps in monitoring the sector “The FSB’s initial assessment is that crypto-assets do not pose risks to global financial stability at this time,”.  He went on to say the FSB’s focus would be on reviewing existing rules rather than introducing new ones. The big 5 bounced immediately on the news:

Last week we discussed Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Misery Index including where he predicted Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of this year.  In an interview with Forbes over the weekend he is now also forecasting Bitcoin will reach $91,000 by March 2020 based on it’s history after previous dips.  Below is his ‘workings’ and note again this is a flattened out log scale (left axis) as Bitcoin’s rise has been so meteoric the graph wouldn’t fit on your screen….

Those previous ‘crashes’ are something we discussed at length back in January.  Indeed just yesterday even financial giant Morgan Stanley had this to say:

"Since bitcoin's creation in 2009 there have been four prior bear markets, with price falls ranging from 28% to 92%, so the recent fall of 70% was nothing out of the ordinary"

The overriding message appears to be ‘don’t panic’, we’ve been here before.  A customer in here put it quite nonchalantly but insightfully last week… ‘Bitcoin has big price peaks between flat periods but each flat is of an order higher than the last that any equities trader would kill for, so don’t stress about missing those big peaks’….

Perspective is everything.

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