5 Years of Chaotic History

The 2 years of COVID-19 started in 2020/21 with the beginning of National self-interest – when the race for untested, mildly proven vaccines became the game to be the first country to get back to pre-COVID normal. Australia backing a one-horse race with Astra Zeneca saw us as one of the last countries to escape lockdowns.

COVID saw wartime equivalent deficit spending and the fall of any right-leaning governments including Trump and our own ScoMo. The inauguration of Biden with his left-wing deficit-funded spending helped continue the ‘transitory inflation’. With 2022 being deemed as ‘The Year of Inflation’ when some smart cookie worked out it probably wasn’t transitory, and the world had an inflationary issue. Countries that had previously started seeing diminishing deflation over the previous decade suddenly jumped into double-digit inflation. Even Japan saw inflation after decades of 0 to negative year-on-year inflation.

In 2023 the year of the ‘Unstoppable USD’ saw inflation generated from government spending in the U.S. being exported worldwide through a strengthening USD. With inflation out of control, the USD saw month after month of interest rate increases strengthening the USD further, with the rest of the world facing collapsing currencies all governments around the world lifted and spent to try to stop the collapse of their currencies against the USD. Left-leaning governments created projects and jobs to sustain their economies at the detriment of their industries and greater economy, much to the amusement of South America –on the back of the success of Bukele, the Bitcoin-supporting, right-leaning head of government of El Salvador – Argentina voted in their own right-leaning president Milei. As the world watched on and muttered ‘failure’ under their breath, Milei slashed government spending with a chainsaw.

2024 saw Argentina’s inflation end at 25% from 133% in 2023, and now expected to drop to single digits in 2025, the naysayers are eating their words, as the Economics professor turned President tries to prove to the world that doing exactly the opposite of what successive governments have done in the last 20 years is actually the solution.

In fact, while Milei cut government spending, new and established left-leaning governments around the world spent and created rent-seeking jobs to hide their economic messes. In Australia, NDIS has arguably hidden the real issues, with 600,000 government and service jobs created in 2024 and only 200,000 created in the overall economy. You don’t have to be a mathematician to know that means 400,000 jobs left the productive economy, meaning there are 400,000 fewer taxpayer-creating companies, services and goods supporting 600,000 government-funded jobs. This landed 2024 the title of the Year of the ‘GDP per capita recession’ as countries like Australia, Canada and the UK saw celebrations of GDP growth by their governments, with unprecedented immigration masking a sinking GDP per capita leaving citizens disillusioned. Individuals have been left feeling robbed as rising interest rates eroded any financial gains they had made, while inflation worsened their financial positions, leading to declining standards of living in these countries.

In the UK Kerr Stamer saw his approval rating tanking to a historic low for a UK Prime Minister in the Modern Era in October last year – only to sink lower with right-wing riots, and a spending/gift scandal much like Albanese allegedly asking for upgrades from his good mate Alan Joyce. Albanese, much like Starmer is lacking in popularity and without a miracle is likely to get rolled in the next election – making him a one-term Prime Minister.

It's early in 2025 but it's possible we see a left-wing revolt, making it the Year of Nationalism. The first head has come early in 2025 with the resignation of Trudeau. Trudeau has seen capital gains taxes lifted to among the highest in the world, mass immigration and a sinking GDP per capita, meaning the cost of living in Canada is the same as in 2012 (Sound locally familiar?). Before his resignation, Trudeau’s approval rating had dropped below 25%.

The level of nationalism is most clearly on display in the U.S., in T-11 days (Trump-11) Donald Trump is officially the President of the U.S., since the election his MAGA proposals include Canada becoming the 51st State, the purchase of Greenland from Denmark, paying its 45,000 citizens US$1,000,000 for the pleasure. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the repatriation of the Panama Canal – estimated to have cost around US$1 trillion to build today it was sold in 1977 to Panama for US$1.

The past few years have reshaped the global landscape, with inflation, government spending, and rising nationalism driving major shifts. From Argentina’s surprising recovery under Milei to the resurgence of nationalism in the U.S., nations are facing the fallout of their decisions. As 2025 unfolds, the focus will be on finding ways to stabilise economies and improve living standards. On an individual level, safe-haven assets like gold and silver could be the simple solution, with their proven track record to preserve wealth and provide stability during uncertain times.