2 BTC Charts Prove Historical Macro Lows
With prices trading at the lower end of the 2021-22 cycle range, the vast majority of buyers from the last 17-months are now holding unrealised losses. Among all models mapping the value zones in the Bitcoin market, two simple but powerful indicators tell a clear macro story; the Mayer Multiple and Realised Price.
The Mayer Multiple is an oscillator defined as the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average. The Mayer Multiple is a gauge to measure when prices might be considered overbought or oversold based on their deviation from long-term averages.
Oversold or undervalued conditions have coincided with the Mayer Multiple falling in the range of 0.6-0.8. These multiples are applied to the 200DMA in the following chart to demonstrate the undervalued zones according to Mayer Multiple; 0.6 MM < Price < 0.8 MM.
Throughout the past four bear markets, market prices have entered this value range in two distinguishable phases:
- Phase A- Early in the bear market, as the initial post-ATH sell-off causes investors to panic
- Phase B Late-stage bear market as the market enters the bottom formation and capitulation
In the current market, prices have been hovering inside this value zone ($25,200 to $33,700) since 5-May, more closely resembling Phase B of the previous bear cycles. From a probabilistic view, Bitcoin prices have only closed below a Mayer Multiple of 0.8 for 7.9% of trading days.
The Realised Price Model is the former macro indicator to map the cycle bottoms. The Realised Price is currently trading at $23,600 and represents the estimated average cost basis of all coins in the Bitcoin supply, based on the price when they last moved on-chain. In previous bear market cycles, when spot prices traded below the Realised Price, it signalled elevated probabilities of a macro low being established.
Historically, the overall market cost basis or realised price has been a very sound cycle support level, with 84.9% of Bitcoin trading days closing above this level. In other words, only 15.1% of trading days have closed below the Realised Price, providing a similar confluence with the Mayer Multiple of 0.8.
Above all, HODLing does continue to dominate investor behaviour, and the longer-term accumulation trends are still impressively constructive. Long-Term Holders are currently shouldering the majority (62%) of unrealised losses, signifying that a gradual but constructive change of ownership has taken place throughout this bear market. Let’s see what the rest of the week brings…