100 Days of Trump as the US Heads for Recession

Love him or hate him, Trump has been president for 100 days. Since his inauguration on the 20th of January gold prices have surged from US$2,715 to US$3300, a 22% increase, whilst the S&P has dropped 8%. So, what have his achievements been so far – what promises haven’t been kept and where is the US heading? Last night’s consumer confidence and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) out of the US showed cracks in the US administration with the chances of a recession rising rapidly.

Achievements

Regardless of your views on immigration, recent data from the US indicates a significant decline in border crossings. Encounters with migrants at the Southwest border fell to 7,181 in April, the lowest monthly figure on record, down from a peak of around 250,000 in January 2024.

The Department of Government Efficiency claims to have saved the government billions of dollars by cutting expenditures across a range of projects. Meanwhile, Trump has signed a record-breaking 142 Executive Orders within his first 100 days – more than any previous President in that timeframe. These orders have largely focused on reducing the size of the federal government, as well as addressing energy policy, immigration, and tariffs.

In a move that echoed the “Drill, baby, drill” slogan, Trump declared a National Energy Emergency, rolling back Biden-era regulations to ramp up oil and gas production.

Amid rising tariff threats, the administration has also touted approximately US$1 trillion in private sector investment, including a US$500 billion artificial intelligence initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI.

However, alongside these headline achievements, the first 100 days have also brought challenges, including heightened volatility in the stock market and increasing strain on international relations, driven by uncertainty over tariffs and shifting trade policies.

Failures

Continued polarisation and politicization of the Judicial System that proliferated under the Biden Administration continues, with court challenges including birthright, citizenship and transgender. Vengeful allegations against Letitia James from the Federal Housing Finance Agency claiming mortgage fraud, ironically what she charged Trump with. As well as pardons for all January 6 individuals who had been charged under Biden.

The tariff war has triggered multiple S&P meltdowns whilst simultaneously dropping demand for US Treasuries, which has seen gold overperform as the last remaining haven. The 10-year bond interest rate has slowly risen – whilst Federal Reserve rates have fallen – meaning investors are becoming wary of the reliability of the US and its economy.  After the announcement of tariffs – the 5-year bond yields spiked (dropping the bond value) from around 3.6% to 4.2%, this has now moderated with hopes of trade agreements back to 3.8%, but the uncertainty in policy is creating chaos in markets and sapping confidence in the US economy.

With tariffs now being raised against traditionally aligned nations – including Canada, Australia and several European countries – tensions within the Western alliance that has held since the end of World War II continue to strain further. Trump admitted he has not been returning phone calls from Australia’s Prime Minister in response to the tariffs. Meanwhile, Canada has elected a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, whose election stance was to stand up against Trump’s bullying tactics, showing just how far relations have deteriorated.

Uncertain Times

Trump’s first 100 days reflect a deliberate strategy to fulfil campaign promises through executive power, bypassing a slow legislative process. Frequent changes in tariff policies continue to create market mayhem and uncertainty. Last night’s JOLTS saw job openings decline below estimates as well as continued consumer confidence shift to a 13-year low, plunging 12.5 points to 54.4.

Currently, Trump's approval rating sits at only 41% and declining, going into a recession which is looking more and more likely will continue to see his support being eroded. Trump will need friends soon, and he doesn’t seem to be winning any, just losing them. 

Watch the insights video inspired by this article here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeW8v43p2iQ